CMSPlanAnalysis — Medicare Advantage market intelligence

LIVE·NEON · 1,211 CONTRACTS·DATA 2025-12·NOTE 2026-06-02

v0.1 · build 2026.06·CMS source

cmsplananalysisMedicare Advantage · MA/PD

⌘K

National MA penetration

51.3%

+25 bpsYTD 2025

Dec 2025 · 35.6M MA / 69.4M eligible

Counties

3278

MA enrolled

35.6M

Eligibles

69.4M

Initializing…

An instrument for reading the Medicare Advantage market — built directly on the CMS Contract & Enrollment Data hub. Penetration shifts, plan churn, member migration, and 2027 enrollment forecasts, refreshed monthly with each ETL cycle.

01 · Trend

National figure, by month

fact_penetration · 3-year window

Penetration · 36-month trend

Jan 2023 → Dec 2025

Start: 48.3%; 2023-01
Latest: 51.3%; 2025-12
36-mo Δ: +3.0 pts; 4.1M MA Δ

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Top MA penetration · large counties

Dec 2025

FIPS	Eligibles	MA	Pen.
01San Juan MunicipioPR FIPS 72127	76,671	59,737	77.9%
02Monroe CountyNY FIPS 36055	174,786	134,694	77.1%
03Ottawa CountyMI FIPS 26139	62,779	47,948	76.4%
04Hidalgo CountyTX FIPS 48215	124,237	94,547	76.1%
05Miami-Dade CountyFL FIPS 12086	520,858	390,954	75.1%
06El Paso CountyTX FIPS 48141	152,719	112,031	73.4%
07Cameron CountyTX FIPS 48061	72,839	53,333	73.2%
08Kent CountyMI FIPS 26081	125,205	90,711	72.5%

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02 · Issuers

Parent organizations that move the country

dim_contract ⋈ fact_enrollment_cpsc · Jan 2026 vs Jan 2025

Parent-org MA leaderboard

Jan 2026 vs Jan 2025

01UnitedHealth Group, Inc.
7.9M
−84.2K
02Humana Inc.
5.9M
+869.9K
03CVS Health Corporation
3.6M
−5.5K
04Elevance Health, Inc.
1.5M
−308K
05Centene Corporation
763.2K
−40.1K
06Health Care Service Corporation
705.8K
−38.7K
07Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Mutual Ins. Co.
659.4K
−99K
08Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, Inc.
402K
−6.8K
09Highmark Health
396.8K
−54.5K
10Devoted Health, Inc.
370.6K
+197.8K
11Healthfirst, Inc.
365.2K
+36.8K
12MHH Healthcare, L.P.
364.5K
+47.5K

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03 · Note

From the analyst-in-residence

fact_insight · latest national note

Analyst note

FILED 2026.06.02

Scope

national

Author

Analyst-in-residence

MA penetration growth flattened to +25 bps in 2025 after +181 bps in 2024

National MA penetration closed 2025 at 51.30%, up from 51.05% in January — a +25 basis-point gain that is roughly an eighth of the +181 bps jump 2024 delivered (50.52% Dec 2024 vs 48.91% Dec 2023). With MA now structurally above 50% of a 69.4M eligible base, marginal growth has shifted from Original-Medicare conversion to inter-plan share-taking, and the AEP effect is compressing: the Dec-to-Jan jump halved from +137 bps a year ago to +53 bps this AEP. Strategy implication: 2026 contract enrollment will be driven by competitive disenrollment more than market expansion, raising the value of crosswalk analysis and benefit-diff signal.

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04 · Departments

The rest of the dashboard

Index of sections